POLLS

Posted at 3:20 p.m. ET

All trackers for the day are out.  Gallup, the last to report, shows Obama up eight, 50-42.  Gallup notes that both McCain's and Obama's percentage has remained relatively stable for ten days.

All trackers show Obama up six to eight points.  A new Democracy Corps poll shows him up only three, but that is the outlier.

As noted earlier, the results are irrational.  McCain is being blamed because he is a Republican, even though the evidence points to the Democrats as those who contributed greatly to the financial crisis by refusing to legislate proper oversight of the mortgage mess.  The public tends to blame the party in the White House for the economy.

The continuing turmoil can only hurt McCain, no matter what he does, and his campaign remains unimaginative.  A star has been born in Sarah Palin, and there is already buzz about her for the future.  I love her, but let me caution that political figures subjected to this much ridicule often have difficulty getting traction.  We should recall that even Ronald Reagan had difficulty convincing the Republican Party to let him have the reins in 1980.  He had been subjected to career-long ridicule over his movie-actor past, even after having served two terms as governor of California.  And he was seen by many, even within his party, as a big of a crackpot.  He was not. 

One striking thing about the polls:  Only one, Rasmussen, has Obama at more than 50 percent - Ras has him at 52 - demonstrating that the polls are no great endorsement of Barack Obama.  It's an "anti" vote that we're seeing. 

It's important to remain committed and optimistic.  There are many political lifetimes to go before election day.  One never knows what can turn this race around, including the perception of a foreign threat.  At the same time, wise political players are always planning.  If the worst should happen in the election, what do we do next?  How do we position ourselves?  How do we deal with an increasingly toxic press, which has essentially collapsed as an independent institution? 

The Reagan Revolution was based on decades of thought, articles, arguments, plans, and the development of a coherent philosophy. 

We still hope to win this election.  We will fight.  But we will also plan, and write.

October 6, 2008.